Important Clarifications - Hotel Reservations | Divorce Rates | Cancer Effects - 9/29/07

Sat Sep 29 16:59:23 EDT 2007

- HILTON HOTEL RESERVATIONS CLARIFICATION
- IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION: MOST CANCERS DO NOT INCREASE DIVORCE
- DIVORCED FROM REALITY

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- HILTON HOTEL RESERVATIONS CLARIFICATION

> Diane, 
> The Hilton hotel in San Francisco is accepting reservations but requiring a
> payment NOW of $131.00 for the room as opposed to taking the credit card
> information and holding it in their records until the time of the reservation.
> They are also giving a cancellation date of June 24, 2008, over a week's
> notice, for cancellation and refund.  Is this jive with your arrangements?
> Genevieve
> _________________________________________________________________

Yes. Working out these details was what took so long in opening
registration. The good news is the $131 is totally refundable if you cancel
a week in advance of your scheduled arrival date.  Every other SF hotel I'm
talking to in the search for overflow is insisting on a non-refundable
two-night deposit. TWO nights NON-refundable! Eeek.  So we got off easy at
the Hilton.    
Diane 

Make your reservations ASAP at: 800-445-8667 - first check the schedule for
the pre and post conference Institutes at:
http://www.smartmarriages.com/program.html or at
http://www.smartmarriages.com/institutes.html   The institutes line-up is
about 60% complete.

For hotel details: http://www.smartmarriages.com/hotel.html

- diane 
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- IMPORTANT CLARIFICATION: MOST CANCERS DO NOT INCREASE DIVORCE

Most cancers do not increase divorce rate

Published: 27, 2007

BARCELONA, , 27 (UPI) -- Norwegian researchers found the risk of divorce is
no higher for couples with a spouse who has cancer, unless it is cervical or
testicular cancer.

Researchers compared the divorce rates of 215,000 cancer survivors with
those among couples with no cancer over a period of about 17 years.

Study leader Astri Syse of the Norwegian Cancer Registry in Oslo, Norway,
found women who developed cervical cancer were 40 percent more likely than
normal to get divorced, and testicular cancer survivors were 20 percent more
likely to get divorced than similar men without cancer.

Syse said the two cancers affect intimacy, resulting in decreases in sexual
desire, enjoyment and fertility. However, Syse proposed that cervical and
testicular cancers mostly affect younger people.

"We suggest that younger age is a stronger predictor than alterations in
sexual function," Syse said in a statement. "It is also possible that sexual
problems or a weakening of the emotional rewards from the union are
particularly devastating early in a relationship and that an increased care
load is most difficult to accept at an age when illness is most unexpected."

The findings were presented at the European Cancer Conference in Barcelona,
Spain.

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- DIVORCED FROM REALITY

Amazing what a "surveying glitch" of a difference of 6 months in the date of
polling can make!  

> While marriage rates are also declining, those marriages that do occur are
> increasingly more stable.

The New York Times 
September 29, 2007
Op-Ed Contributors
Divorced From Reality
By BETSEY STEVENSON and JUSTIN WOLFERS

THE great myth about divorce is that marital breakup is an increasing threat
to American families, with each generation finding their marriages less
stable than those of their parents.

Last week¹s release of new divorce statistics led to a smorgasbord of
reporting feeding the myth. This newspaper warned readers, ³Don¹t stock up
on silver anniversary cards² because ³women and men who married in the late
1970s had a less than even chance of still being married 25 years later.²
And apparently things are getting worse, as ³the latest numbers suggest an
uptick in the divorce rate among people married in the most recent 20 years
covered in the report, 1975-1994.² Other major newspapers ran similar
articles.

The story of ever-increasing divorce is a powerful narrative. It is also
wrong. In fact, the divorce rate has been falling continuously over the past
quarter-century, and is now at its lowest level since 1970. While marriage
rates are also declining, those marriages that do occur are increasingly
more stable. For instance, marriages that began in the 1990s were more
likely to celebrate a 10th anniversary than those that started in the 1980s,
which, in turn, were also more likely to last than marriages that began back
in the 1970s.

Why were so many analysts led astray by the recent data? Understanding this
puzzle requires digging deeper into some rather complex statistics.

The Census Bureau reported that slightly more than half of all marriages
occurring between 1975 and 1979 had not made it to their 25th anniversary.
This breakup rate is not only alarmingly high, but also represents a rise of
about 8 percent when compared with those marriages occurring in the
preceding five-year period.

But here¹s the rub: The census data come from a survey conducted in
mid-2004, and at that time, it had not yet been 25 years since the wedding
day of around 1 in 10 of those whose marriages they surveyed. And if your
wedding was in late 1979, it was simply impossible to have celebrated a 25th
anniversary when asked about your marriage in mid-2004.

If the census survey had been conducted six months later, it would have
found that a majority of those married in the second half of 1979 were
happily moving into their 26th year of marriage. Once these marriages are
added to the mix, it turns out that a majority of couples who tied the knot
from 1975 to 1979 ‹ about 53 percent ‹ reached their silver anniversary.

This surveying glitch affected only the most recent data. Still, factoring
in an appropriate adjustment yields the conclusion that divorce rates have
been falling, not rising. This is not just statistical smoke and mirrors:
the Census Bureau warned that the most recent data understate the true
stability of recent marriages. But a warning buried in a footnote does not
always make the headlines. (Indeed, this newspaper reprinted the table, but
omitted the warning.)

The narrative of rising divorce is also completely at odds with counts of
divorce certificates, which show the divorce rate as having peaked at 22.8
divorces per 1,000 married couples in 1979 and to have fallen by 2005 to
16.7.

Why has the great divorce myth persisted so powerfully? Reporting on our
families is a lot like reporting on the economy: statistical tales of woe
provide the foundation for reform proposals. The only difference is that
conservatives use these data to make the case for greater government
intervention in the marriage market, while liberals use them to promote
deregulation of marriage.

But a useful family policy should instead be based on facts. The facts are
that divorce is down, and today¹s marriages are more stable than they have
been in decades. Perhaps it is worth stocking up on silver anniversary cards
after all.

Betsey Stevenson and Justin Wolfers are assistant professors of business and
public policy at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.

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