Press/Divorce fee/Marriage Math/Adulterer/Boy Bias - 2/04

[Smart Marriages ®]

subject: Press/Divorce fee/Marriage Math/Adulterer/Boy Bias - 2/04

from: Smart Marriages®

- THE ADMINISTRATION'S MARRIAGE INITIATIVE: PRESS EVENT FEB 17
- DIVORCE FEE MAY GO TO FAITH GROUP
- MARRIAGE HAS NEW MATH
- I AM AN ADULTERER
- PARENTING 
- THE BOY BIAS  

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- THE ADMINISTRATION'S MARRIAGE INITIATIVE: PRESS EVENT FEB 17
We need to clarify WHO and WHAT Marriage Education and the President's
Marriage Initiative are - and, are NOT about.   Please make every effort to
join us tomorrow, Feb 17th. We'd like to show by our numbers that we believe
Marriage Education and the President's Marriage Initiative are worthy of our
support.  Please share this announcement with anyone you think might be
interested.   
- diane
 
> The Administration's Marriage Initiative
> Misconceptions and Realities
> A Public Statement, Report, and Panel Discussion
> Tues, Feb 17, 2004
> 10am to 12noon
> National Press Club
> 529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC
> In response to the intensive but poorly informed current public discussion
> of the Administration's marriage initiative, marriage educators and experts
> from across the political spectrum will clarify the content of the
> initiative and explain why they support it. A joint public statement and a
> new report will be released.  For the agenda:
> http://archives.his.com/smartmarriages/smartmarriages.0402/msg00004.html
> 
############################


- DIVORCE FEE MAY GO TO FAITH GROUP

By Phillip Elliott
Courier & Press staff writer (Indiana)
February 13, 2004

Vanderburgh County hopes to partner with a divorce-prevention organization,
charging added fees to file for divorce and then directing those funds to
the nonprofit group.

Community Marriage Build-ers, a five-year-old faith-based group, stands to
collect more than $20,000 in fees collected through the county clerk's
office. Those funds then would be used to promote reconciliation, counseling
or mediation. 

County Clerk Marsha Abell said she wants to have an official partnership in
place by the end of this fiscal quarter, which ends March 31. First, the
state must approve the partnership. Under Indiana code, the state can order
couples into mediation.

"It's relatively new," Abell said. "There are only a couple of counties
using it right now."

The chapter of the law was added in 1997.

Chief Deputy Clerk Carla Hayden said it is unclear when the county could
begin collecting the additional $20 fee, but it could be as soon as April.
The county will retain none of the mediation fee, directing all of it to the
state-approved agency.

"We have to submit their qualifications to them," Abell said. "They don't
let you use anybody."

Couples seeking divorce already pay $109 to file, said Hayden, who is
heading the office's implementation.

Community Marriage Builders has developed a loose affiliation with the
clerk's office during the past five years, using the roster of filed
divorces to send intervention packets to those who file for divorce. The
group sent 750 packets last year, said Ann Gries, coordinator of the
160-church group. 

Last year, the office accepted 1,034 petitions for divorce, Hayden said. In
2002, 1,343 petitions were submitted.

Those numbers are down from 1994, when the clerk's office accepted 1,811
petitions. 

The decrease in divorce filings comes as the population increases slightly.

The reduction of divorce filings could translate to saved money for the
county, officials said. Keeping the divorce out of a courtroom saves the
time of judges and clerks. And keeping the family together reduces the
strain on state and federal social services, Abell said. "It's a known fact
single moms draw some form of assistance for their children," she said. "The
more we can keep families together, the cheaper it is on the taxpayers."

Community Marriage Builders' current budget is $65,000, Gries said. By
increasing its budget by more than a third, Community Marriage Builders
would be able to reach more struggling couples.

She estimated Community Marriage Builders could find a permanent,
nonhome-based office and increase its staff with the proposed funding.

"We really struggle to get funding," she said. "We need these programs."

------------------
Note from Diane: Ann Gries has attended & presented at Smart Marriages and
is affiliated with Marriage Savers.  Ann Gries contact information:
www.marryright.org. Community Marriage Builders, 2415 E. Gum, Evansville, IN
47714.  812-477-2260

################

- MARRIAGE HAS NEW MATH
The Associated Press
February 13, 2004

Seattle -- A researcher believes he can predict the outcome of most any
marriage with a few squiggles on a chart.

John M. Gottman said a 20-year study involving more than 600 married couples
shows that by carefully plotting how a husband and wife interact and then
reducing those observations to a formula, researchers can tell which
marriages will succeed and which are heading for the rocks.

In a report at the national meeting of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, Gottman said studies by his Relationship Research
Institute and the University of Washington show that how couples resolve
differences is a key factor in whether a marriage will last.

The methods used by couples for conflict resolution can be expressed
mathematically or on a simple graphic to predict how the marriage will
endure. In effect, math has now found a place in love and marriage, he said.

To gather the data, a team of researchers observed video tapes of couples in
interviews by marriage counselors and noted how husbands and wives responded
to each other.

Gottman said his team found that there basically are three types of stable
marriages.

The first is a husband and wife who routinely avoids conflict.

When a difference of opinion arises, said Gottman, "they will never argue.
They will listen to the other, but will not try to persuade."

Such marriages, which he calls the "avoiders," may be unemotional and
distant, but they endure.

A second type is a volatile relationship "like two lawyers in a courtroom,"
said Gottman.

"They can argue at the drop of a hat. They are the Bickersons," he said.
Such marriages tend to last even though there are frequent and impassioned
arguments.

The third type of stable marriage Gottman calls the "validating" couple.
They listen to each other, respect the other's opinion and only occasionally
argue.

"They pick the issues they fight about," he said.

Trouble in marriages comes when the couples are a mix of personalities that
do not mesh in resolving conflicts. For instance, a husband who is a
volatile arguer married to a wife who is an "avoider", or one who flees from
disagreement, may be in marital trouble, he said.

"Couples like that are usually heading for a divorce," he said.

Researchers mathematically chart the marriage interactions by plotting not
just what is said, but also how it is said and the body language and facial
expression behind it. Emotions such as anger, harshness and hostility get a
negative number, while humor and an eagerness to talk lovingly about the
partner get a positive rating.

When these data points are given values and plotted on a chart it produces a
line that dips below a neutral point into negative territory, or a line that
soars above the neutral point.

Gottman said follow-up studies have shown the system works. He said an
"escalating negative affect", or a steep descent on the chart below the
neutral point, predicts a couple will divorce within 5.6 years after
marriage.

A more gentle descending slope below the neutral point, suggesting an
"emotional disengagement," predicts a divorce within 16.2 years after
marriage, he said.

Charts with lines rising above the neutral point plot marriages that last.

By using the charts, Gottman said it is possible to help stabilize some
marriages. For instance, there's little hope for a marriage where the wife
is an avoider of argument and the husband thrives on heated discussion. If
she can be taught to respond to his verbal attack while he can learn to tone
down his volatility, then they might find a happy middle ground of marriage.

Gottman said in marriages where this counseling has been applied, about 65
percent of couples remain together for at least one year. This research,
however, is still in an early stage, he said.

Copyright (c) 2004, Newsday, Inc.

This article originally appeared at:
http://www.newsday.com/news/health/ny-marriage0213,0,266692.story

Visit Newsday online at http://www.newsday.com

John and Julie Gottman will present at the Smart Marriages Dallas conference
on another "math" formula - "And, Baby Makes Three" - their latest program
and research around the birth of the first baby.  - diane

##########################
- I AM AN ADULTERER
> Hello, 
> 
> I am an adulterer. I caused the end of my marriage and great pain to EVERYONE
> I love. 
> 
> 20+ years of being completely faithful. And as it should be, never even a
> slip. Then I completely broke. I gave up on everything I believed in and
> everything that was important to me. I let everyone down. Yes there are kids.
> I am sure this sickens you as it now does me.
> 
> One question. Do you happen to know of a program or resource that can help me
> in my recovery and assist me in learning to be a better person and never doing
> anything like this again? I really dont know where to start or even if there
> is anywhere to start. Just a link or anything would be appreciated.
> 
 Start at the Smart Marriages home page (http://www.smartmarriages.com) -
click on "Infidelity You Can Recover" - fourth link from bottom on the
middle column.  A wealth of resources.  - diane
##############################
- PARENTING 
Powerful quote for parents and the work they're doing. Also, powerful for
children-of-divorce. It's not like this is from the middle-ages - Simenon
died in 1997.   

> "What you have not absorbed by the time you reach the
> age of eighteen you will never absorb. It is finished. You will be
> able to develop what you have absorbed. You will be able to make
> something or nothing at all of it, but your time for absorption is
> over and for the rest of your life you will be branded by your
> childhood." - Georges Simenon

################################

- THE BOY BIAS 

Washington Post, 
February 8, 2004
Richard Morin, "The Boy Bias"

We all know that kids are a joy, right? And many of us are so thrilled to
become parents that we don't care whether the little bundle is a boy or
girl. But by a large margin, American men who do have a preference say they
would rather have a son than a daughter, and this boy bias subtly shapes
such decisions as whether to marry, divorce and have another child.

That's the conclusion of economists Gordon B. Dahl of the University of
Rochester and Enrico Moretti of UCLA, who have found that couples are more
likely to stay married if they have sons, more likely to divorce if they
have daughters and more likely to have another child if all their children
are girls.

Happily, the consequences of boy bias are limited. "For most marriages there
is likely no effect at all," Dahl said. "On others, the effect is larger,"
he said, adding that "you'd probably have to have a pretty poor marriage to
begin with for this to have a big effect."

Dahl and Moretti analyzed U.S. Census data collected from 1940 to 2000, as
well as California birth records from 1989 to 2001. Using these massive data
sets, they were able to isolate the effects of boy bias on dating, mating,
marriage and child-rearing practices.

They found some evidence of gender bias wherever they looked. In families
with at least two children, the probability of giving birth to another child
is greater in all-daughter than all-son families -- a result that "would be
hard to explain if parents were completely gender unbiased," they wrote in a
working paper published recently by the National Bureau of Economic
Research.

The bias showed up in the divorce stats, too. "Over the whole study period,
the divorce rate for a three-girl family versus a three-boy family is 5.7
percent higher," Dahl said.

Here's the good news, though: The divorce effect appears to have diminished
over time. But that doesn't necessarily mean that American men have seen the
light and are losing their preference for sons. Instead, these researchers
found that the divorce effect has been replaced by what they called a
"custody effect."

In the past, fathers rarely had sole or joint custody of their children.
That apparently made some fathers with sons think harder about divorce out
of fear that they would lose contact with their sons. But since 1970, the
number of children living with their fathers has quadrupled -- giving rise
to an apparent boy bias in matters of custody. "If you're the daughter of a
divorced dad, you're much less likely to be living with your father than a
son is," Dahl said. "Fathers with all-boy offspring are 11 to 18 percent
more likely to have boys living with them, depending on how many sons they
have, compared to all-girl offspring."

Perhaps the researchers' most compelling evidence for boy bias comes from an
unexpected source: data relating to shotgun marriages.

The California birth records note whether or not an expectant mother had an
ultrasound, a procedure that is more than 95 percent accurate in predicting
the sex of an unborn child. Slightly more than a third of all mothers in the
California sample had undergone ultrasounds, which means that they and the
father may well have known the gender of their child before the baby was
born.

When Dahl and Moretti analyzed this group of mothers separately, they found
this disturbing pattern: Those who gave birth to boys were more likely to be
married than those who gave birth to girls. While the researchers don't know
for sure, the circumstantial evidence strongly suggests that "fathers who
find out their child will be a boy are more likely to marry their partner
before delivery," Dahl said.

Of course something other than boy bias could be at work, the researchers
acknowledged. Perhaps fathers fear girls will be more expensive to raise
than boys -- call it the "sticker shock" theory. Then again, years of
research suggest that sons need their fathers more than daughters need their
dads -- the so-called "role model" theory. Perhaps couples with sons somehow
take this into account in deciding whether to divorce or to quickly get
married if a baby is on the way.

The problem is, neither theory explains why couples with daughters are more
likely to try to have another baby. Kids are expensive, whether they're boys
or girls. And while boys need dads, that doesn't explain why couples with
girls disproportionately desire to have another child.

Boy bias fits all the data, Dahl asserts. Plus, there's direct evidence from
polling that point to the source of this bias: men. Gallup surveys over the
past two decades show that among American guys who have a preference, sons
are favored 2 to 1 over daughters while women who have a preference are only
slightly partial to daughters.

Dahl said the best antidote to divorce is a happy marriage, regardless of
the gender of your kids. A good home life overwhelms such emotional
eccentricities as men's preference for sons, women's slight preference for
daughters, guys' love affair with watching professional sports and that hang
up women have about toilet seats that are left up. (Now somebody needs to
study that.)

And don't despair if you're blessed with daughters, Dahl said. He speaks
from experience.

"I've been married for 11 years and have three girls," he laughed. "I'm very
happy. So if the question is, 'If you have daughters, is your marriage
doomed,' the answer is no."

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