Comment on Stanley by Gottman about prediction -1/6/99

[owner-smartmarriages]

from: Smart Marriages


Comment on Stanley by Gottman about prediction:

	I would like to comment on Scott Staley's piece on prediction. I
heartily agree that we can not confidently predict the fate of any one
indivdual couple, nor is it ethical to do so. We have no idea whether that
couple was represented in our samples on which our prediction was based.
So what we do is to say to couples that based on our work we can suggest
some strengths in their relationship and also some areas that may need
improvement. We make no other statements beyond that.

	However, I would like to clear up a few points. In our early
studies indeed our "prediction" was looking backwards. However, the same
predictions have now replicated, and in subsequent studies it was indeed
prediction before the longitudinal data  were in. We have now conducted 4
longitudinal studies in which our prediction data have held up.

	The base rate problem Stanley raises is not as serious as he
suggests, because the statistical analyses give separate "correct
prediction rates" for both couples staying together and divorcing. Only
about 2 to 5 percent of couples divorce per year in any of our samples, so
predicting the divorced couples isn't that easy (base rate is low), and
yet we are near 100% for that group. Our errors are that we predict some
people will divorce who do not. We are starting to get a handle on that
problem now in our study of effective repair of negativity. Some very
negative couples wind up stable and even happy, and most of those, we are
discovering, are able to repair the negativity while they are still
arguing. And the basis of  effective repair appears to be the quality of
the marital friendship.

	Hope this contributes to the discussion about prediction.

John Gottman	
	





**************************
This FREE online newsletter shares information on marriage, divorce and 
skills-based educational approaches.  Opinions expressed are not 
necessarily shared by members of the Coalition.

To SUBSCRIBE or UNSUBSCRIBE to the list, mail majordomo at his.com
Leave the subject line empty. In the body of the 
message type: subscribe smartmarriages or unsubscribe smartmarriages 
(do this on the first line, do not skip a space at the top)

- to CHANGE YOUR ADDRESS, follow the directions to unsubscribe your old 
address and subscribe your new address.  

- this is a moderated list.  When you send a reply message it is read by 
Diane Sollee, director, only.  

Newsletter archive - all past posts to the newsletter:
http://archives.his.com/smartmarriages/index.html#start 

4th Annual Smart Marriages conference/June 29 - July 2, 2000, DENVER  
http://www.smartmarriages.com/conferencedetails.html 
for registration, hotel and travel information.
up to 57 hours CEU -APA, SW, MFT, NBCC, CFLE

List your program in the Directory of Providers at:
 http://www.smartmarriages.com/directory_browse.html 

Coalition for Marriage, Family and Couples Education, LLC (CMFCE)
Diane Sollee, Director
5310 Belt Rd. NW, Washington, DC 20015-1961
www.smartmarriages.com
202-362-3332  (FAX 202-362-0973)   Email: cmfce at smartmarriages.com