[Intelforum] Secrecy News -- 07/23/09

Thu Jul 23 11:16:36 EDT 2009

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SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2009, Issue No. 63
July 23, 2009

Secrecy News Blog:  http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/

**      SENATE BILL WOULD DISCLOSE INTEL BUDGET REQUEST
**      OSC SEES SIGNS OF NORTH KOREAN SUCCESSION

SENATE BILL WOULD DISCLOSE INTEL BUDGET REQUEST

The Senate version of the FY2010 intelligence authorization bill would
require the President to disclose the aggregate amount requested for
intelligence each year when the coming year's budget request is submitted
to Congress.  Currently, only the total appropriation for the National
Intelligence Program is disclosed -- not the request -- and not before the
end of the fiscal year in question.

Disclosure of the budget request would enable Congress to appropriate a
stand-alone intelligence budget that would no longer need to be concealed
misleadingly in other non-intelligence budget accounts.

"This reform makes possible a recommendation of the 9/11 Commission to
improve oversight by passing a separate intelligence appropriations bill
and provides for greater transparency and accountability for intelligence
spending," said Sen. Russ Feingold, who sponsored the proposal, together
with Committee Vice Chairman Sen. Christopher Bond and Sen. Ron Wyden. 
(Curiously, the measure was opposed by Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse.)

See Senate Report 111-55 on the FY2010 Intelligence Authorization Act,
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, July 22 (sec. 356):

	http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/2009_rpt/srpt111-55.pdf

Intelligence budget disclosure has been and still remains a subject of
extraordinary sensitivity to some officials.  In 1999, DCI George J. Tenet
specifically opposed the idea of releasing the annual budget request
because he said it would damage national security by revealing
intelligence strengths and defects.

"Disclosure of the budget request reasonably could be expected to provide
foreign governments with the United States' own assessment of its
intelligence capabilities and weaknesses. The difference between the
appropriation for one year and the Administration's budget request for the
next provides a measure of the Administration's unique, critical assessment
of its own intelligence programs," Mr. Tenet argued in an April 6, 1999
affidavit filed in a FOIA lawsuit brought by the Federation of American
Scientists.

	http://www.fas.org/sgp/foia/tenet499.html

This is surprisingly close to nonsense.  Changes in aggregate spending
levels occur for many reasons, including the start of new programs, the
termination of completed programs, shifts in acquisition phases, personnel
changes and inflation.  The difference between the previous year's
expenditures and the following year's request represents the outcome of
thousands of individual programmatic decisions.  Looking at last year's
NASA budget and this year's NASA request, one could not possibly infer a
meaningful assessment of the performance of the civilian space program. 
The same is true of the vastly more complicated intelligence bureaucracy.

But implausible as it seems, Mr. Tenet's argument was sufficient to
convince D.C. District Judge Thomas F. Hogan that disclosure would in fact
threaten national security.  And so the intelligence budget request has
never been released.

Even now, the CIA takes great pains to conceal budget information that is
more than half a century old, as if national security were somehow at
stake.  This week, the CIA published an historical document on its website
concerning the "Central Intelligence Group Budget, Fiscal Year 1948" with
the archaic budget numbers meticulously removed.

	http://www.foia.cia.gov/cgi/1948/CIG_Budget_FY1948.PDF

Today, Bill Gertz of the Washington Times reported on a working draft of a
new executive order on classification that he obtained. The principal
feature of the new draft seems to be a National Declassification Center,
designed to coordinate and expedite the declassification of historical
records across the government.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2009/jul/23/inside-the-ring-78640126/

But it remains unclear if the proposed Center will include a mechanism for
overturning erroneous classification policies such as CIA's indiscriminate
budget secrecy.  If it does not provide an error correction mechanism,
then the Center might end up perversely reinforcing today's retrograde
classification policies and implementing them even more efficiently.

OSC SEES SIGNS OF NORTH KOREAN SUCCESSION

North Korea has renewed its planning for the likely succession of
leadership from the ailing Kim Jong Il to his youngest son Kim Cho'ng-un
(or Kim Jong Un), according to a deeply researched assessment by the DNI
Open Source Center (OSC).

"Pyongyang last autumn reinvigorated a nuanced propaganda campaign that it
apparently began eight years ago to prepare for the emergence of a
hereditary successor to Kim Jong Il," the OSC said.  "The recent signals
have been extremely subtle, suggesting that they are designed to inform
internal audiences without alerting outsiders."

The OSC report is a virtuoso piece of analysis that includes rich detail
on the three generations of Kims, the development of the unfolding
information campaign on leadership succession, and background on the
little-known Kim Cho'ng-un. It even presents "an OSC-generated
age-progression photo" that extrapolates from the only available
photograph of the younger Kim, taken at age 10, to show what he may look
like now at age 26.  And it shows an amazing familiarity with obscure
facets of North Korea's notoriously secretive society.

Thus, it finds a possibly significant allusion to Kim Cho'ng-un, who is
his father's third-born son, in the recent broadcast of "a children's
program entitled 'Good Heart of the Third Child,' which emphasized the
moral virtue of the youngest of three brothers in his adherence to
socialist principles."  This is something of a departure from the
Confucian tradition which favors the eldest son, the OSC explains.

The OSC analysis, marked "for official use only," has not been approved
for public release, but a copy was obtained by Secrecy News.  It was
mentioned in "Who Will Succeed Kim Jong Il?" by Andrew Higgins, Washington
Post, July 16, 2009.  See "North Korean Media Campaign Suggests Long-Term
Planning for Hereditary Successor," Open Source Center, 6 May 2009:

	http://www.fas.org/irp/dni/osc/dprk-succession.pdf

For all of its detail and sophistication, the OSC assessment is
inconclusive.  A Russian analyst this week told Gazeta.ru that the
anticipated selection of Kim Cho'ng-un is merely "conjecture and rumor." 
He recalled witnessing the ascension of Kim Jong Il to power in 1975 when
Kim was publicly presented together with his father Kim Il Sung in joint
portraits and official news stories.  But "nothing of the sort is
happening now... If only speculation is occurring, I think the successor
has still not been chosen."  (Interview with Vasiliy Mikheyev, deputy
director of the Russian Academy of Sciences World Economy and
International Relations Institute, Gazeta.ru, July 21, 2009, translated by
OSC.)

_______________________________________________
Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the
Federation of American Scientists.

See also "Reducing Government Secrecy: Finding What Works" by Steven
Aftergood, Yale Law and Policy Review, vol. 27, no. 2, Spring 2009:
     http://www.fas.org/sgp/eprint/aftergood.pdf

The Secrecy News Blog is at:
     http://www.fas.org/blog/secrecy/

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_______________________
Steven Aftergood
Project on Government Secrecy
Federation of American Scientists
web:    www.fas.org/sgp/index.html
email:  saftergood at fas.org
voice:  (202) 454-4691