jdmaca at bellatlantic.net
Sun Apr 8 22:46:26 EDT 2001
HOW DID EP-3E - F-8 COLLISION OCCUR? We are starting to see news items
and columns that describe how it was that the 2 aircraft collided. I
put little credence in any of those reports. The problem is that
mid-air collisions are very difficult to reconstruct after the fact --
the two pilots concerned usually have a different recollection of what
transpired. In this case, the media has not had access to the American
pilot and we have good reason to believe the Chinese govt is lying about
what it knows. The US Navy pilot on the other hand probably does not
know exactly what happened. The collision occurred in his "blind" spot
-- directly beneath him. He could not have seen much if anything. He
was undoubtedly very busy trying to nurse his crippled EP-3 to Hainan
and may or may not have been able to radio his version of events to US
authorities before he landed.
TV NEWS. One of the TV news networks was showing an animated video of
the collision on April 4 -- it suggested the two F-8's "buzzed" close by
and below the EP-3 and one misjudged and struck the US plane as it
streaked by underneath it. Very plausible, but what is their source?
WILLIAM SAFIRE in a NY Times op-ed on 5Apr2001 wrote that the F-8 flew
ahead of the slow moving EP-3 and then slowed down to obstruct the
EP-3's observations. In doing so, the fighter stalled and was over run
by the EP-3. Possible but not very plausible.
A WASHINGTON POST story on Apr 5 claims that one of the F-8's was tucked
in close beneath the EP-3, and when the US plane banked sharply, its
wing struck the F-8. Possible but not very plausible.
MISSING CHINESE PILOT KNOWN FOR HIGH RISK MANEUVERS. According to this
story, Wang Wei, the missing F-8 pilot had previously been photographed
within 10 feet of a US Navy P-3 waving a paper with his e-mail address
on it. He was also associated with previous high risk "buzzing"
TAIWAN NEWSPAPER CLAIMS EP-3 WAS FORCED TO LAND. This story from Taipei
Times says it is based on a ROC military intelligence source familiar
with Taiwan's radar and voice monitoring of the entire incident.
According to the story, the EP-3 was at low altitude flying in circles
around a new, Russian-made Sovremenny-class Chinese destroyer when
intercepted. The F-8's flew on the EP-3's wing for a time but with
great difficulty because of the low speed -- which may well be what
caused the collision. After the collision, according to this story
which differs from US and PRC versions, the EP-3 tried to fly out of the
area but was forced instead to land on Hainan by the second fighter
which fired warning bursts from its cannon.
HONG KONG NEWSPAPER SAYS EP-3 ALMOST SHOT DOWN.
According to this article, a Hong Kong newspaper reported Monday
(quoting Chinese sources) that after the collision the surviving F-8
requested permission to shoot down the EP-3. The Chinese ground control
denied permission. The EP-3, according to this report tried to fly out
of the area but was forced by the F-8 to land on Hainan. [If these
reports are true, the US side probably knows that from reports the EP-3
pilot made in the air and/or monitoring of communications. In any
event, neither China or the US would want this kind of "explosive"
information to get out. --jdmac]
AUSTRALIA & US COOPERATE IN CHINA SURVEILLANCE.
ONE-METER IMAGERY OF LINGSHUI MILITARY AIRFIELD. [courtesy of Jeremy
WEBSITE DEVOTED TO EP-3 INCIDENT.
US AIRCREWS TRAINED TO HANDLE INTERROGATION AND IMPRISONMENT. [Sort of
-- I got this training in 1962 with refresher en route to Vietnam in
1968. Glad I didn't have to use it. --jdmac]
NIXON FACED SIMILAR CHINA SITUATION IN 1971.
IS IT TIME TO END PRCSO FLIGHTS? The ill fated EP-3 that landed on
Hainan Island last week was one of many Peacetime Reconnaissance &
Certain Sensitive Operations (PRCSO, formally PARPRO, Peacetime Aerial
Reconnaissance Program) flights that the US carries out around the world
on a daily basis. They are more or less routine until something like
this happens -- and it does happen (Francis Gary Powers, USS Liberty,
EC-121 shootdown off Korea in 1968, etc). In the article below, Jim
Bamford author of the "Puzzle Palace" (1981) and "Body of Secrets:
Anatomy of the Ultrasecret National Security Agency, From the Cold War
Through the Dawn of a New Century" (forthcoming at the end of this
month), argues the flights should be discontinued. His main point is
that satellites can do the same thing. Maybe, but I'm not so sure. I
do think we need the SIGINT and ELINT these flights collect, but if
satellites or UAV's could do it without risking international incidents,
well, maybe he's right.
ON THE OTHER HAND, EP-3's ARE VALUED BY CINC's. The Navy has [or had]
only 11 of these sought-after reconnaissance aircraft.
ROBERT STEELE WOULD PROBABLY AGREE WITH BAMFORD. Bob Steele, former
Marine and former CIA case officer, and the indefatigable advocate of
open source intelligence is suggesting (threatening?) to form a group of
retired intelligence and foreign affairs officers to lobby Congress and
the public for fundamental reform of the US intelligence community.
Steele "is also a strong advocate for backing away from 1970's
surveillance technology [like EP-3E aircraft and satellites] that no
longer provides the returns to risk ratio ... U.S. military and
national intelligence are both on 'automatic pilot', running mindlessly
down channels we established in the 1970's."
SPACE AND INTELLIGENCE TO MOVE UP NOTCH IN PENTAGON. SecDef Rumsfeld is
preparing to create an important new Pentagon office, the Under
Secretary for Space, Information & Intelligence (SI2). The office will
absorb the low level AsstSecDef for Command, Control, Communications,
Computers & Intelligence (C4I). Albert Smith, a Lockheed executive VP,
is leading candidate to be nominated for the Under Secretary post and be
dual hatted as Under Secretary of the AF.
INTELLIGENCE ASSETS IN SPACE NEED TO BE DEFENDED.
NEITHER US GOVT NOR DOD STRUCTURED FOR SPACE IN VIEW OF SECDEF RUMSFELD
AND OTHERS IN ADMINISTRATION.
ARMY FORMING NEW UNITS FOR BATTLEFIELD INTELLIGENCE. They will be air
or ground vehicle mobile and be equipped with various battlefield
sensors, UAV's and computers.
CIA STILL ENGAGED IN MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMACY. Two weeks ago, the Bush
White House announced that the CIA would no longer take a diplomatic
role in mediating between Israeli and PLO security services -- an
arrangement formalized at the Wye River accords in 1998. Well, the
Washington Post reports that a auto convoy containing PLO senior
security officials was fired on in the Gaza strip on Thursday. The
article goes on to say they the incident occurred hours after the
officials had attended a meeting with their Israeli counterparts near
Tel Aviv at the home of US Ambassador Martin Indyk. According to the
Post, "a CIA official presided" at that meeting.
CHOKING SUBORDINATES! This story in the Post is about the tragic
suicide last Tuesday of Rick Yannuzzi, 46, the CIA's deputy national
intelligence officer for strategic and nuclear programs. The article
goes on to speculate that the suicide might be related, somehow, to a
somewhat bizarre story that has been going around. Yannuzzi, it seems,
had been one of a number of CIA employees questioned about a month ago
by the CIA's inspector general in an internal investigation triggered by
a manager who complained that her privacy rights had been violated,
police said. The manager filed a complaint with the CIA IG last fall
after fellow employees sent a series of anonymous letters to agency
officials protesting her receipt of two cash bonuses and a promotion
from GS-15 to SIS despite an incident in which she was found to have
choked a subordinate during a workplace outburst in September 1998,
according to a CIA official.
BRITISH INTELLIGENCE, MI5 & MI6, BUDGETS TOO LARGE? This article says
that Britain's intelligence agencies are too big, too expensive and not
worth the money.
FRANK OLSON, CIA SCIENTIST, DIED MYSTERIOUSLY IN 1953. This is an old
story that is being resurrected by Eric Olson, the son of Frank Olson.
The elder Olson, who may or may not have already been very upset or even
psychotic, was apparently administered LSD as part of a CIA
"brainwashing" experiment in 1953. Subsequently, he became very
agitated. Several days later, a CIA escort took him to NY City
ostensibly to see a psychiatrist. While there, he fell, jumped or was
dropped out of a 10th floor window. Now, his son has had his father's
body exhumed and hired investigators to pursue the matter.
BOOKS & OTHER SOURCES
Keiichiro Komatsu, "ORIGINS OF THE PACIFIC WAR AND THE IMPORTANCE OF
MAGIC," St. Martin's Press, 1999. 484 pp.
The author of this controversial book argues that mistakes in
translating MAGIC intercepts in the fall of 1941 led the US to believe,
mistakenly, that Japan was moving towards war when in fact they were
seeking a diplomatic solution. To buttress his case, he demonstrates
that a number of important Japanese messages were indeed mistranslated.
At the same time, Tokyo misunderstood what Roosevelt and the American
ALGER HISS WEBSITE. This website at NYU is generously funded and
designed to make the case for the defense, that Hiss was NOT a Soviet
agent. Another never ending debate....
INTERESTING EXCERPTS FROM CONGRESSIONAL DEBATE OVER THE FY1997
BRITISH PARLIAMENT ON BRITISH INTELLIGENCE.
DGSE (FRENCH INTELLIGENCE) WEBSITE (unofficial, in French).
TECHNICAL INTELLIGENCE WEBSITE.
ENDLESS ACRONYMS. Here's a good glossary of the endless number of
stuff at intelforum.org
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